Economics update | November 4, 2022

04 Nov 2022

RBA increases cash rate by 25 basis points
For the second consecutive month, the Reserve Bank raised the cash rate by 25 basis points. This follows 50 basis point increases in each month from June to September and takes the cash rate to 2.85 per cent. With lagging effects of rate rises on the economy, the RBA’s more reserved increases allow for more time to accurately judge the market effects. Nonetheless, Governor Philip Lowe has expressed the RBA’s willingness to return to larger increases if the economic situation requires.

This rise follows a CPI increase of 1.8 per cent in the September quarter and 7.3 per cent over the year. Correspondingly, the RBA has also increased their inflation forecast to 8 per cent at the end of 2022. The Federal October Budget, however, maintained their 7¾ per cent forecast.

The US Federal Reserve increased their cash rate by 0.75 per cent, raising their overall cash rate to between 3¾ and 4 per cent. As a result, Australia has become further misaligned with the US, being a whole percentage point behind the US cash rate. Tied closely to the US economy, this discrepancy will dampen the competitiveness of the Australian dollar, put further pressure on the price on imports, and hinder economic growth.

 

‘2020-21 Barriers and Incentives to Labour Force Participation’ released
The ABS has released its ‘2020-21 Barriers and Incentives to Labour Force Participation,’ identifying 2.8 million Australians in 2020-21 who did not work full time and either wanted a job or were working part-time and wanted to increase their working hours. Engaging these people to participate or increase their participation in the workforce will help address the current labour and skills shortages.

Caring for children was the most common reason (24.6 per cent) women were unavailable to start a job or work more hours within four weeks, whilst for men it was long-term sickness or disability (34.5 per cent). The greatest incentive to join or increase participation in the labour force for women was the ability to work part-time hours (48.8 per cent), and for men it was finding a job that matches skills and experience (42.9 per cent).

Stemming from new Government investments, the ABS will now collect and release annual data, complemented by a quarterly partial data release, on barriers and incentives to labour force participation. 

 

 







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