Economics update | 19 May 2023

19 May 2023

Wages continue to rise while the labour market softens

Australia witnessed its highest annual wage growth since the September quarter of 2012, reaching 3.7 per cent annually for the March quarter of 2023. This was slightly below the Reserve Bank of Australia’s annual expectation of 3.8 per cent for the March quarter of  2023. The quarterly increase in the Wage Price Index for the March quarter of 2023 stood at 0.8 per cent.

The primary driver behind the growth in wages was the private sector, with wages increasing by 0.8 per cent in the March quarter of 2023 and annually by 3.8 per cent. The public sector recorded the highest quarterly (0.9 per cent) and annual (3 per cent) wage growth for the sector in a decade. The strongest wage increases were seen in education and training (1.5 per cent), and professional and scientific services (0.9 per cent).

While wages continue to grow, the labour market has begun to show signs it is softening, with the number of people employed easing back slightly, down 4,000 jobs. At the same time, 18,000 people were added to the unemployment ranks, with unemployment rising by 0.2 per cent month-over-month, to reach 3.7 per cent in April 2023. The participation rate moved down from 66.8 per cent in March 2023 to 66.7 per cent in April 2023. However, monthly hours worked increased to 1,974 million, indicating those in work were working longer hours .

Given further wage growth but a slight increase in the unemployment rate, all eyes are set on whether the Reserve Bank will raise the cash rate further when it meets next month.







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